How Wrong We can be!

http://interestingtimes.blogspot.com/ had a post just before the 2004 Iowa caucuses. The table (inserted left above) showed Vermont Governor Howard Dean ahead.

The blogger on this poll said "I'll keep crunching the numbers, but I don't expect any real changes here before the Iowa Caucuses (barring unforeseen circumstances)."

The line chart (right top) showed Dean at the top of a trent rising and Mass Senator John Kerry in a plunging line. See screen snip.

Of course, Dean collapsed on caucus night and Kerry went on to win the nomination!

My warning to you is don' believe anything you read before caucus night is over.

Iowa caucus participants are very private and independent. They also lie to pollsters. I have been told by many people over the years that they DELIBERATELY tell poll callers wrong information!

Of course many people have no land line - many have only a cell phone - and are not in the phone book anymore. Pollsters are scrambling to get good samples by other means - normally polls are done with a phone book or a list of people (for example likely caucus participants) and randomly choosing names and phoning them. What to do if folks are not listed anymore?

Caution folks!