How Wrong We can be!

http://interestingtimes.blogspot.com/ had a post just before the 2004 Iowa caucuses. The table (inserted left above) showed Vermont Governor Howard Dean ahead.

The blogger on this poll said "I'll keep crunching the numbers, but I don't expect any real changes here before the Iowa Caucuses (barring unforeseen circumstances)."

The line chart (right top) showed Dean at the top of a trent rising and Mass Senator John Kerry in a plunging line. See screen snip.

Of course, Dean collapsed on caucus night and Kerry went on to win the nomination!

My warning to you is don' believe anything you read before caucus night is over.

Iowa caucus participants are very private and independent. They also lie to pollsters. I have been told by many people over the years that they DELIBERATELY tell poll callers wrong information!

Of course many people have no land line - many have only a cell phone - and are not in the phone book anymore. Pollsters are scrambling to get good samples by other means - normally polls are done with a phone book or a list of people (for example likely caucus participants) and randomly choosing names and phoning them. What to do if folks are not listed anymore?

Caution folks!

More South Carolina Primary Stuff.

While I respect the comment of my colleague Todd Shaw, I still think that if the Europeans, Canadians and other democracies can do a pre-election candidate selection and a general election in 3 months with campaign finance limitations American voters are getting more time with more money spent to "inform" them about candidates than any nation on Earth.

We need to shorten (not lengthen and spread out)the election process!

GOP picks Jan. 19thS.C. keeps 1st in South primary
By Yvonne Wenger (Contact)
The Post and Courier
Friday, August 10, 2007

COLUMBIA — A move Thursday to ensure South Carolina Republicans are the first in the South to vote in the 2008 presidential primaries might have Sen. Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani competing with Santa Claus.

State Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson set the GOP primary for Jan. 19, potentially pushing Iowa and New Hampshire to schedule their voting dates into mid-December and early January, respectively.

"We wanted to retain the integrity of the process," said Dawson, who made his announcement at the Statehouse in Concord, N.H. "We're firmly committed to being the first in the South."

Dawson said Florida precipitated the move by scheduling its primary Jan. 29, jumping ahead of South Carolina's GOP primary that had been tentatively scheduled for Feb. 2. Democrats in South Carolina will still vote Jan. 29.

However, by law New Hampshire's primaries and Iowa's caucuses must be first in the nation.
"Florida has really thrown everything into turmoil," said Iowa State University political scientist Steffen Schmidt,who was vacationing in Charleston. "Everybody wants to be first but everybody can't be first."

Schmidt said the timing will present unique challenges to the presidential candidates in a wide-open race that's already unprecedented by its early nature. In this race, there will be little time for the candidates to catch their breath between the first two contests, other early states such as South Carolina and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, Schmidt said. Voters in as many as 20 states will head to the polls that day.

"Everything is happening so fast," Schmidt said. "I think some of them are going to be dead ducks by the time they leave Iowa."

University of South Carolina political scientist Todd Shaw said he's worried about what the schedule will mean for voters.

"All the more pressure it puts upon the voter to make up his or her mind early," Shaw said. "Traditionally, they can wait until after Christmas to really congeal their conclusions. Now, they have to worry about the holiday season and who they are going to select as their nominee for president, in some cases."

The 2008 Iowa Caucus is scheduled to be held Jan. 14, but state law requires it be set at least eight days before any other contest.

"Iowa will go first, that is the bottom line," Iowa Gov. Chet Culver said in a statement. Iowa Republican and Democrat parties said they would wait to see what action New Hampshire takes before considering rescheduling their date.

New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation primary has been widely reported to be scheduled Jan. 22. But Secretary of State Bill Gardner told The Associated Press no date's been set and that he has no plans to do so anytime soon. The state is required by law to hold its primaries a week before any other.

South Carolina Republicans could face sanctions by the Republican National Committee. According to the committee's rules, the states have a window between Feb. 5 and July 28 to individually schedule the caucuses and primaries. States that set the contests outside that window risk losing delegates at the convention.

Still, maintaining South Carolina's first-in-the-South GOP primary is wonderful news for the state, said Lin Bennett, chairwoman of the Charleston County Republican Party.

"That's our legacy," she said. "We've been so successful in picking the presidential nominees, and it's a really a good thing for South Carolina voters."

Inscrutable Iowa Straw Poll?

Yes, there will be a GOP Straw Poll on Aug 11, 2007 in Ames Iowa.

Is it inscrutable? (For those of you from Mars that means "not easily understood, mysterious").

Not really.

Just follow me here!

No, it is not an official political event but it is still intriguing.One of the things I will be watching like a hawk is how well Rudy Giuliani and John McCain do in the poll. Oh, sure, I know they are not officially participating but that's tough cookies for them because they and Fred Thompson and all the other GOP wannabes are going to be on the straw poll ballot. So, by NOT participating they are in danger of "coming in last".

If you look at how John McCain did in the 1999 Straw Poll, the last time the White house race in the GOP was open, you will see what I mean.

McCain was 10th with 83 votes even though he was not participating. A BIG LOSER!

The Iowa Straw Poll is unique.

You (GOP prez wannabe) are going to be "running" whether you are running or not! McCain and Giuliani will either come in very low on this list or they will encourage a stealth campaign in order to pump up those numbers and being able to spin it as "an amazing result since I was NOT a candidate" or dismiss the low numbers by insisting "I was not a candidate".

An interesting problem!

I will also be carefully scrutinizing how well the new front runner Mitch Romeny does. Will he blow away the field the way W Bush did in 1999? Bush received 31% of the vote, bested Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Dole who came in second an third, and pin-pricked the balloon of Lamar Alexander, Dan Quayle, Gary Bauer, Alan Keys, Pat Buchanan, Orrin Hatch, ... then dead last Kasich, and Smith (no one remembers who they were!). If Romney gets 31% he will have won.

Finally, I will be watching the "munchkins" - the low ranking candidates who hope to break through with a better than expected placing - Huckabee in third place would be huge!

So, I feel very str9ngly that we should not dismiss the Iowa Straw Poll as a gimmick or "just" a fund raiser for the GOP.

There are nuances and very interesting side stories that we should watch as we examine the road to the White House 2008. The Straw Poll is one of those.