best Case Scenario for Iraq - Read History of Civil War.

A democratic, middle class, liberal, civilian, and secular Iraq was always the wet dream of a bunch of fool morons in Washington who probably were sharing in Rehnquists medications.

Where are the historical and regional roots for that to happen quickly (in 24 months after the dictator is gone) or even slowly (in 200 years)? Liberal democracy is not a product nations can choose like a car. They are largely organic - they grow from the social, political, and cultural "climate" of the region. And, stable democracy is NEVER achieved by having all the extreme, warring parties get together and split the differences. It is almost always the victory of someone (hopefully the "good guys").

Since it has not come to pass and we are not going to be there to somehow "Make it So" with military might, what's the best that can come out of this mess?

The US in the end probably actually no longer has an interest in a stable and unified Iraq if it would be under a radical Islamic coalition government. (That's no doubt the only way it would be a strong government). What's worse than Sunni and Shiia joining forces and creating a unified anti western front?

An Iraq that is divided and an Islamic community that is at war with itself and that sucks Iran into a regional mess is actually in some weays very favorable for the US, the West, secularists, and even some of the states in the region who fear a strong Iraq.

The US will probably pull back most of its forces to northern Iraq and protect the Kurdish oil and the Kurdish areas. And, it will pull to Basra and protect an area of southern Iraq and exportable oil throiugh the Gulf. The US will probably keep significant force in the areas of Kuwait, Djibouti, Manama, Bahrain, and on the 2 carrier groups that will soon be in the Persian Gulf.

This gives the US a powerful and flexible presence so it can protect Saudi Arabia and other countries from forces spilling across to them (the US unchallenged air power and can blow away any amassed forces like that).

This will make the United States the only broker in the area to prevent all out war and to shield against the Iranian nuclear weapons when they come on line.In the meantime in Iraq, as others have said, a Spanish civil war or an Algerian civil war is the most realistic scenario.

You can Google those two wars if you don't know about them.

Basically the wars were cruel and terribly bloody as civil wars and maybe a million died. In the end one side won and established power. The losers lived with their defeat.

The Europeans did not greatly get entangled in Spain and the French (Algeria) kept their fingers in the conflicts but in the end (after De Gaulled pulled out French forces) NOT as direct actors but as manipulators.

In history one death is a tragedy but a million deaths are destiny.

It's still a nasty world out there!

Sleep on that one!