How do you predict a landslide political shift?

A few weeks before the 2006 election we are looking at public opinion polls, at the closness of races around the country for House, Senate, and governorships, and at the real-life events that shape elections;

• The deteriorating situation in Iraq with mounting attacks and casualties.
• The House page sex scandal in which a congressman wrote sexual e-mail and text messages to under aged students.
• The general sense that the Bush administration is incompetent in every way - the FEMA Hurricane Katrina relief effort being the methaphor for government incompetence.
• The complete and record breaking low approval ratings of the US Congress which hit 17% this week - 17%!! That's half of the approval rating of the news media!
• The mailing out three weeks before the November election of a 107 page, confusing, stupid and ridiculous booklet called "Medicare & You" sent to all American qualifying for Medicare. Only someone with a PhD in bureaucracy could understand this gobble-de-gook and actually take advantage of health care opportunities.

The question is ... can we predict a landslide victory for the Democrats who are the "out party"- out of the White House, out of the House, out of the Senate, and out of the Supreme Court?

The out party (not responsible by virtue of being the minority party, should technically be favored by voters embittered and disappointed by the failure of the federal government over the oast 12 years of Republican control of the Congress and 6 years of GOP control of the White House.

So what could derail this analysis?

The most important factor is the "power of incumbency" - those who seek reelection to public office have been anointed with a renewal of their job by a whopping 90+%.

The pundits - "wise" commentators, (or at least "wiseguys"), and analysts - all seem to agree that the Democrats should do very well.

It will be interesting to see if the conventional wisdom pans out on election night. If it does the tools of predicting turnover will be confirmed. If they fail we will be going back to the drawing board to devise more accurate predictors.

Of course if the Republicans lose control of the House and Senate all will change and Pres. Bush will be in deep trouble. There are many Democrats (and Americans) who feel that he has violated the Constitution and may merit impeachment.